"Navigating the South China Sea Crisis: A Deep Dive into the Origins, Current Conflicts, and the Global Implications of this Geopolitical Flashpoint."
Introduction
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea, series of conflicts arising from the overlapping territorial claims of several countries that border the South China Sea. In recent decades China has been widely seen as the conflicts’ primary driver. While countries have long disagreed on the sea’s precise international demarcations, China has moved ever closer to demanding exclusive economic and military rights over the vast majority of the South China Sea.
The History of South China Sea Crisis
The origins of the contemporary conflict over the South China Sea can be traced to changes in East Asian geopolitics following World War II (1939–45). China’s historical claims to the sea date to the so-called “11-dash line,” introduced in 1947 by the Nationalists (Kuomintang) under Chiang Kai-shek, during the Chinese Civil War (1945–49). The map that included the 11-dash line emphasized Chinese sovereignty and reflected nationalist pride after what many Chinese considered to have been a century of humiliation by foreign powers. When the Communists under Mao Zedong defeated the Nationalists in the civil war and established the People’s Republic of China, the new government in Beijing claimed successor status to the Republic of China and its nautical territorial claims, which it modified slightly by changing the 11-dash line of the 1947 map to a 9-dash line.
The disputes over ownership of the South China Sea remained relatively dormant until the 1970s when China began asserting its vast territorial claims after discovering potential oil and gas reserves in the sea. In 1974 China seized the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam; more than 65 Vietnamese soldiers were killed in the process. China then took possession of Johnson Reef (part of the Spratly Islands) from Vietnam in 1988 and Mischief Reef (also part of the Spratlys), claimed by the Philippines, in 1994. China now controls the Paracel Islands in their entirety. The plurality of the Spratlys’ reefs and islands are controlled by Vietnam, while the Philippines and China each claim and operate on a sizable portion of the archipelago. Malaysia and Brunei both have claimed some features of the Spratly Islands as well as EEZs off their coasts that overlap with China’s claims.
The Importance of the South China Sea
The South China Sea holds an enormous geopolitical influence within the broader perspective of global politics. It is a focus point for international powers and their interests because of its strategic location at the crossroads of international maritime routes connecting the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.
The South China Sea is vital for the global economy as it permits the annual transfer of products worth trillions of dollars. These waters carry nearly one-third of all global trade, including essential energy supplies like oil and natural gas. If China tries to disrupt this trade, then it would damage the global supply chain and the health of the economies of other countries.
The South China Sea is rich in marine life. Contributing to this abundance are the extensive runoff of nutrient-laden waters from land and the upwellings of water in certain areas of the sea. The sea is heavily fished, however, and is the main source of animal protein for the densely populated Southeast Asian area. Most abundant are the various species of tuna, mackerel, croaker, anchovy, shrimp, and shellfish. Nearly the entire catch is consumed locally, either fresh or preserved.
Large reserves of oil and natural gas have been discovered under the floor of the South China Sea. The main locations for hydrocarbon production are located north of Borneo, east of the Malay Peninsula, and northwest of Palawan.
The South China Sea contains some of the world’s most important shipping lanes. The main route to and from Pacific and Indian ocean ports is through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. Generally, oil and minerals move north, and food and manufactured goods move south.
The Current Situation
In recent years, satellite imagery has shown China’s increased efforts to reclaim land in the South China Sea by physically increasing the islands' size or creating new ones altogether. In addition to piling sand onto existing reefs, China has constructed ports, military installations, and airstrips—particularly in the Paracel and Spratly Islands, where it has twenty and seven outposts, respectively. China has militarized Woody Island by deploying fighter jets, cruise missiles, and a radar system. The United States, which maintains important interests in ensuring freedom of navigation and securing sea lines of communication (SLOCs), has expressed support for an agreement on a binding code of conduct and other confidence-building measures. China’s claims threaten SLOCs, which are important maritime passages that facilitate trade and the movement of naval forces. To protect its political, security, and economic interests in the region, the United States has challenged China’s assertive territorial claims and land reclamation efforts by conducting freedom of navigation operations and bolstering support for Southeast Asian partners. Washington’s defense treaty with Manila could draw the United States into a potential China-Philippines conflict over the substantial natural gas deposits or lucrative fishing grounds in disputed territory. Also, in response to China’s assertive presence in the disputed territory, Japan has sold military ships and equipment to the Philippines and Vietnam to improve their maritime security capacity and to deter Chinese aggression. Upon assuming office in June 2022, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. rejected the conciliatory stance toward China adopted by his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. The Philippines’ most contentious disputes with China center on the Second Thomas Shoal of the Spratly Islands, which lies within the Philippines’ 200-mile EEZ. In 1999, the Philippines intentionally grounded a ship to reinforce its territorial claims to the area which it calls the West Philippine Sea. Since then, the Philippine Coast Guard has conducted monthly resupply missions to its military contingent on the ship, known as the BRP Sierra Madre. Chinese Coast Guard vessels began to employ dangerous tactics to harass Philippine resupply missions in 2023, leading to heightened clashes. Collisions have become increasingly common, and the Chinese Coast Guard has used a military-grade laser and repeatedly fired water cannons against Philippine ships. On June 17, a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship collided near the Second Thomas Shoal; both sides blamed the other for the incident. Amid the rise in tensions with China, the Philippines has strengthened its partnerships with other Indo-Pacific neighbors. Marcos has signed deals to increase base access, joint exercise training, and weapons transfers with the United States. In March 2024, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that the United States’ Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines extended to both countries’ armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, Japan has also stepped up its presence in recent years by selling military equipment to the Philippines and Vietnam to improve maritime security capacity.
The Chances of a Viable Solution for the Crisis
the South China Sea conflict has been approached from several perspectives in order to determine its historical and current causes and to further discuss possible solutions in the regional and international sphere. Following an analysis of the causes and actors of the conflict, attention was turned to whether there is a resolution at the regional and international sphere. But, it is clear that the conflict in the South China Sea is deadlocked now because the actors will not compromise on their claims soon due to the very large size of the region and the imbalance of power between the actors. In particular, the presence of a strong and aggressive country like China makes the conflict intractable because China intends “to prevent an internationalization or regionalization of the dispute and would like to prevent or weaken any move towards solidarity within ASEAN on these issues and continue to address them on a bilateral basis.” (Congressional Research Service, 2021). Pending resolution of the conflict, the South China Sea is looking more and more like a Chinese lake, despite United States’ efforts and to the detriment of neighbors who, in their own interests, tend to align themselves with Chinese power. Even, recent developments such as the creation of AUKUS, new alliance group in the region among Australia, United Kingdom and United States, and the formation of QUAD make more increasingly China aggressive and the tensions in the region blow up.
The Economic Impact of this crisis
Making up part of the western Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea sits between southern China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia. About a third of global maritime trade passes through the 3.5 million square kilometer (1.4 million square mile) seaway annually, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Around 40% of petroleum products traded globally are delivered via the sea every year. In 2016, an estimated $3.6 trillion (€3.29 trillion) worth of goods and commodities traveled the seaway, according to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Another estimate put the figure as high as $5.3 trillion. Researchers at Duke University in North Carolina calculated that total trade through both the South China Sea and the East China Sea — which lies between China, the two Koreas and Japan — is worth $7.4 trillion per year. Tens of thousands of cargo vessels move through the South China Sea every year, carrying around 40% of China's, a third of India's and 20% of Japan's trade with the rest of the world, according to CSIS data. Out of all of Asia, the three countries' economic security is most closely tied to the smooth running of the waterway. The South China Sea is a vital crossroads for both intra-Asian trade as well as for commerce with the rest of the world, especially Europe, the Middle East and Africa. While the main current tensions are between China, the Philippines and Taiwan, the real threat to trade in the South China Sea could come in the Malacca Strait, which lies further south between Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. Last year, 23.7 million barrels of oil and petroleum products were moved through the strait per day, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The figure was 13% higher than through the Strait of Hormuz. The Malacca Strait is just 64 kilometres wide at its narrowest point and is already vulnerable to congestion and collisions. Over the years, the waterway has seen many incidents of robbery and piracy. Some geopolitical and military experts have predicted that if China were to invade Taiwan, for example, the US and its allies could blockade the Malacca Strait, limiting Chinese access to oil as well as exports from Asia's largest economy.
Conclusion
The South China Sea crisis is currently in a deadlock situation with no party backing down from their claim, this situation is likely to get worse considering the territorial thrust of China to control the entirety of south China sea and to hold a monopoly over the resources it has to offer the only hope that remains is continuous dialogues to if not completely agree on a treaty or a truce but to militarily disengage from the crucial areas and reevaluate the conditions South China Sea's position as a major conduit of global maritime trade, peace and stability in the area, and the uninterrupted flow of seaborne commerce, are vital for the economies of all countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and indeed all states in every part of the world. Accordingly, it is in no country's interests — least of all China's, which has enjoyed phenomenal export-led growth over the past four decades — to allow tensions to escalate to the point where sea lane security in the South China Sea is undermined.
Sources
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/south-china-sea dispute/conclusion/624186710F6DD5862817B773A7D2A6B8
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